Remind me again: Why do I keep checking my mailbox? No good ever seems to come of it.
That theory was confirmed earlier this week when the blasted thing yielded a bright and shiny flyer that almost masked the fact that it was actually a depressing harbinger: while Montreal’s municipal elections may still be 13 months away, the campaign has already begun. (Big sigh/eye roll.)
The mailing that set off this low-grade anxiety was from my local city councillor, who, after fulsomely reminding me of his many achievements, finally got to his point: he is running for re-election on Nov. 5, 2017, and is counting on my vote so that he can keep serving me and my fellow residents in such an awesome manner. (I’m paraphrasing here, but not much.)
My take-away: Friends, this is going to be a long 13 months.
Now, some would argue that the last municipal campaign — which technically wrapped up on Nov. 3, 2013, with Denis Coderre winning the mayor’s office and his self-titled party earning a majority on Montreal’s city council — never truly ended.
Because if there has ever been a Montreal mayor who has governed more in the same glad-handing, photo op-craving manner in which he campaigned, I was certainly not alive to witness it. Coderre is a populist without peer, even when he would be wise to lead with his head and not his gut. Even the most charitable observer would have to agree that the results have been decidedly mixed. But, on the other side of the coin, it would also be hyperbolic to say he hasn’t been an improvement over his scandal-dogged predecessor, Gérald Tremblay, and Tremblay’s short-lived successor, Michael Applebaum, who will stand trial on corruption-related charges next month.
Does any of that mean Coderre is a shoo-in for re-election? Hardly, although it’s often challenging to get an accurate read on how local politicians are faring with the public, and not just the pundits. That’s because outside of active municipal election campaigns, few polls regularly take that type of temperature. The most recent one I could find was a Léger poll from last November, the midway point of Coderre’s current term, which found him with an astonishing 72 per cent approval rating among Montrealers. But eleven months is an eon in city politics, and it will be interesting to see how Coderre’s increasingly imperious and combative approach to running the city, and his haphazard handling of several hot dossiers, has affected his current standing with Montrealers.
It’s also instructive to note how fundamentally the political landscape has shifted since the 2013 vote. We’ve all paid attention to Coderre — whose party currently controls 31 seats on council — but some may have lost track of his then adversaries for the mayor’s job: Richard Bergeron, who ran as the leader of Projet Montréal, is now one of Coderre’s chief lieutenants; Mélanie Joly, who fashioned herself as the true candidate of change in 2013 — her party was literally called Vrai changement pour Montréal, and now has a caucus of just three councillors — changed herself right out of city politics, jumping to the federal level, where she is the MP for Ahuntsic-Cartierville and Canada’s Minister of Canadian Heritage; and Marcel Côté, the sober, sage and subtle economist turned politician — i.e. he never had a chance — passed away in 2014. His party is now represented at city hall by five councillors, including the mayors of Le Sud-Ouest, Côte-des-Neiges-Notre-Dame-de-Grâce and Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve boroughs. (Rounding out city council are nine independent councillors).
In the immediate short term, the most substantive happening will almost certainly be the race to choose a new leader for Projet Montréal, the official opposition to Coderre’s administration, with 17 seats on council. Interim leader Luc Ferrandez, the mayor of the Plateau-Mont-Royal borough, announced in January that he would not be seeking to become the party’s permanent leader. So far, three candidates — Valérie Plante, François Limoges and Gérald McNichols Tétreault — have officially declared their intentions to run, and others are sure to follow. (Party members will elect their new leader Dec. 4).
The importance of Projet Montréal getting this choice right cannot be overstated; the party has been a commendable and effective opposition, but to many Montrealers, they have not quite been able to shake their caricature as Plateau hipster eco-warriors intent on banning cars and hampering business development and whatnot. Ferrandez even acknowledged that potential image problem when he announced he wasn’t running to lead Projet Montréal, noting that “(Coderre’s) eternal argument is to show me as the radical and someone people should be scared of. I’m going to take that card out of his game.” Having a Projet Montréal that is a credible, realistic challenger to Coderre — throughout the city, not just in certain boroughs — in next year’s vote can only be a promising development for Montrealers, no matter how the vote itself turns out.
While other mayoral contenders will almost certainly emerge between now and election day, there’s also an intriguing wild card in the mix ahead of the 2017 city vote, and it’s not a politician or a party. It’s Montreal’s 375th birthday and the attendant celebrations. The ballooning price tag and delays that have already hampered some of the high-profile birthday projects have many of us concerned, and how they ultimately play out — whether as a colossal, expensive bust or a joyful, proud celebration — will almost certainly have an impact on the mood of Montrealers as they mark their ballots next November.
I’ve barely scratched the surface here of what’s at stake for Montrealers in the 2017 election, but I should probably still wrap things up; I don’t want to bum everyone out too much too soon. Don’t worry though; in the 400 or so days until polls open, I’m sure we’ll have an opportunity, or 50, to revisit this topic.
